9200 Pujols Rookie Diamond Kings? I don't think so.

So Beckett says that there are 9200 copies of Albert Pujols' 2001 Donruss Rookie Diamond King, and 46,000 copies of his 2001 Donruss The Rookies card. It says so right there on page 33 of the July 2006 issue. And if Beckett says it, it must be true. Right?

Not so fast. I have documented on this site my eternal quest to complete a 2001 Donruss master set and only added the Pujols RDK last month. With all due respect to Beckett, I find it hard to believe that there are 9200 copies of the RDK out there. In fact, let me prove it to you.


The only way to get a Donruss The Rookies set was through a redemption card that was inserted into packs of '01 Donruss at the rate of 1:72/packs. Each The Rookies factory set came with one of five Rookie Diamond Kings -- Pujols being one.

In addition to The Rookies, Donruss also inserted into packs (at the rate of 1:720), a card good for a Baseball's Best factory set. Baseball's Best was a "Tiffany" style set that featured the complete 220-card Donruss set, the complete 105-card Donruss The Rookies set, as well as all five Rookie Diamond Kings. At the time of the product's release in May 2001, Donruss said that only 1000 Baseball's Best redemption cards were inserted into '01 Donruss packs. Granted, Donruss wound up making more that 1000 Baseball's Best sets, but let's take them at their word that they inserted only 1000 Baseball's Best redemption cards into packs.

Now, if there were only 1000 Baseball's Best cards that were inserted into packs of 2001 Donruss, and they were inserted at the rate of 1:720, and if the insertion ratio for The Rookies card was 1:72, that must mean that Donruss inserted 10,000 The Rookies redemption cards.

1000 X (720/72) = 10,000

This means that Donruss produced a maximum of 10,000 Donruss The Rookies factory sets. 36,000 less than what Beckett says.

But, Donruss would up producing more than 1000 Baseball's Best sets -- they made 1597. Unbeknownst to collector's, Donruss produced three different versions of the Baseball's Best set: 999 "Bronze," 499 "Silver," and 99 "Gold." Now, let's assume that Donruss issued 1597 redemption cards, instead of the 1000 they initially said they would. This would also increase the number of Donruss The Rookies redemption cards, but still not anywhere near the 46,000 level Beckett claims.

1597 X (720/72) = 15,970

So that settles it. There are anywhere between 10,000 and 15,970 Donruss The Rookies factory sets, and 2000 to 3194 Albert Pujols Rookie Diamond Kings (15,970/5 = 3194). BUT... Remember, as we've seen with the Donruss Albert Pujols RC, NOT ALL REDEMPTION CARDS GO FULFILLED! Especially for a set that, unlike the base set Pujols, cost $24.95 for shipping and handling to redeem.


46,000 The Rookies factory sets and 9200 Pujols RDKs? Sorry Beckett, not buying it. Unless Donruss did with The Rookies what they did with Baseball's Best -- that is, dumping additional factory sets directly to Hobby dealers without the coupon -- the production figures don't add up. On the other hand, 4600 Donruss The Rookies sets and 920 Pujols RDKs, those are figures this collector can accept.

What I Got at the Card Show: 6/17/06

Man, was Earl Hebner secretly referreing that U.S.-Italy World Cup match, or what? How the hell could you send Mastroeni off for that kind of foul? Pope? OK, I might be able to buy that second yellow card. But Pablo? Come on now.

Anyway, Ghana bailed us out and the Stars-and-Stripes played their collective asses off for a well-deserved draw. Our boys are still in it folks. We're still in it.

So to celebrate, I, naturally, decided to blow a significant portion of my paycheck on baseball cards!

Site: Granite Run Mall; Media, PA

A second box of 2006 Ultra (Paid $59)
One HTA box of 2006 Topps series 2 (Paid $59)

I just posted the Ultra break, and the Topps 2 break will be forthcoming.

Total Spent on Cards: $118
One South Park "Don't Forget to Bring a Towel!" T-Shirt: $17 (impulse buy)
One US Soccer baseball cap: $20 (Father's Day present)
Commodore Barry Bridge Tolls: $3
Grand Total: $158

Trey and Matt need to give Towelie his own spin-off series. I am so serial about this.

2006 Topps Allen & Ginter: 1st Impressions

Next month, Topps will release their latest pre-War influenced "retro" product: Topps Allen & Ginter (TA&G). The product is notable for for the return of a Hobby legend, and for the return of one of the dumbest gimmicks in Hobby history.

For those unfamiliar, in 1887 the Allen & Ginter tobacco company of Richmond released what is generally recognized as the first "trading card" set (ACC designation: N43). The "Allen & Ginter's World's Champions" only featured 10 actual baseball players, but they were the first actual "baseball cards."

TA&G is Topps' latest entry in a continuous line of retro-themed products: last year's Turkey Red, 2004-05's Cracker Jack, and the 20X sets of 2002 and 2003. While those sets featured only baseball players, TA&G will have Major Leaguers with a few stars from other sports interspersed -- just like in the original. So along with A-Rod, Pujols, Ichiro, and the rest of the gang, you'll be able to pull cards of Mike Tyson, Hulk Hogan, Brandi Chastain (I'd tap that), Danica Patrick (that too), and hot dog eating champion Takeru Kobayashi. What, no El Wingador?

The structure of TA&G is similar to the other Topps pre-War sets, with one original-sized parallel per pack, framed relics, buy backs, and whatnot. What makes TA&G significant from a Hobby perspective, is the return of a name The Hobby hasn't heard from in quite a while.

That would be Dick Perez. Yes, Dick Perez. The original artist of the Donruss Diamond Kings will contribute the "Dick Perez Sketches" insert to TA&G -- an insert that looks more in place in a 1980s retro set than a 1880s set. But hey, it's Dick Perez. Welcome back Dick!

And now the bad news. The single worst gimmick in Hobby history rears its ugly head in TA&G: "Dare-to-Tear." Yes, what made 1998 Zenith the second worst baseball card product ever, is making a most unfortunate come back. Granted, the "Rip Cards" (as Topps calls them) are only one-per-case (1:288). But still, Dare-to-Tear was a lousy idea that no one in The Hobby took seriously, and should have died the same death as the company they came up with it.

Other than the Rip Cards, this looks like another pretty good nostalgia product from Topps. I for one, will be looking forward to its release in July.

How do #2 picks pan out anyway? And the long-run significance of Gordo-Mania!

Pop Quiz: What do these current and former baseball players have in common with the current object of Kooky Keith™ Olbermann's affection, Alex Gordon?

Les Rohr
Reggie Jackson
Terry Hughes
Peter Broberg
J.R. Richard
Steve Dunning
Jay Franklin
Rick Manning
John Stearns
Tommy Boggs
Mike Lentz
Pat Underwood
Bill Gullickson
Lloyd Moseby
Tim Leary (the former Expo reliever, not the LSD guy)
Garry Harris (no relation)
Joe Carter
Augie Schmidt
Kurt Stillwell
Billy Swift
Will Clark
Greg Swindell
Mark Merchant
Mark Lewis
Tyler Houston
Tony Clark
Mike Kelly
Paul Shuey
Darren Dreifort
Ben Grieve
Ben Davis
Travis Lee
J.D. Drew
Mark Mulder
Josh Beckett
Adam Johnson
Mark Prior
B.J. Upton
Rickie Weeks
Justin Verlander

I'll give you a few seconds to figure it out.

dum-dee-dum-dee-dum

la-la-la-la-la

Give up? If you haven't figured it out, or haven't looked at the title of this entry, all the players on the list were the second player selected overall in Major League Baseball's amateur first-year player draft. Be honest, have you ever even heard of half of these guys? Probably not.

Looking at the list begs the question: How many of these guys are either in the Hall of Fame, or are on pace towards enshrinement? Or, to put it in Hobby terms, how many of these player's rookie cards will ever be worth anything?

Well, we know Reggie's already in. So there's at least one. Joe Carter and Will Clark are marginal candidates, at best. (Veterans Committee anyone?) So there's three. J.R. Richard would have been a first-ballot HOFer, and his cards still hold at least some value -- there's four. It's still too soon to tell if "That J.D. Guy," Mulder, Beckett, or Prior are HOF material, even though their RCs are worth some serious scratch. And for the sake of this argument, let's not even bring Upton, Weeks, Verlander, or Mister Gordon into the discussion, as it is still too soon to tell if they'll ever develop into Major League superstars.

Jackson, Carter, Clark, Richard, "That J.D. Guy," Mulder, Beckett, and Prior are about it. In over forty years worth of drafts, only eight #2 picks have gone on to have good-to-great Major League careers -- seven if you subtract J.R. Richards' stroke-interrupted career -- and whose rookie cards are not commons box material. 8-for-36 (excluding the four most recent #2 picks). That's barely above the Mendoza Line (8/36 = .222).

Which brings us to Olbermann. KO has got to be thinking to himself that Gordon has the potential to have a career on par with Reggie Jackson's. How else do you explain his buying spree of Alex Gordon Topps cards? (And no, I'm not buying the "I need it to fill out my set" bull crap. We know what you're up to Keith.)

Twenty-five years from now, if Alex Gordon puts up career stats comparible to Reggie Jackson's and winds up on the podium giving his acceptance speech at Cooperstown -- or at the very least, posts career numbers similar to Joe Carter's -- then Olbermann has all but cornered the market our generation's T-206 Honus Wagner. Let me repeat that: Keith Olbermann may have already cornered the market on the next T-206 Wagner. Can you imagine what the BGS 9.5 Gordon that Olbermann just paid $7500 for, or the un-opened rack pack with a Gordon clearly visible he paid $5900 for will be worth then? And am I the only one in The Hobby that is seeing the significance of this?

The key words are may have. If Gordon's career turns out to be as good as Reggie Jackson's, then good for Keith. But judging by the list above, Gordon probably has a better shot at a career similar to another recent #2 overall draft pick: Travis Lee. In other words, an overly-hyped high first-round draft pick whose rookie cards got some serious early run, but whose career didn't amount to jack squat. Although with the signing bonus Gordon was able to get from the Royals, he probably doesn't have to worry about living in a van down by the river any time soon.

Box Break and Review: 2006 Ultra

Two Boxes of 2006 Ultra baseball (paid $59 each).
24 packs per box, eight cards per pack (MSRP $2.99/pack)

The Details

Chiptoppers: One advertisment for 2006 Flair Showcase. (Looks pretty good).

Base Set: 251 cards

Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 200 cards
Retro Lucky 13: 50 cards (1:4)
Kenji Johjima Redemption Card: one card

Parallels:
Gold Medallion: 200 cards (one-per-pack*)
Retro Lucky 13 Gold Medallion: 50 cards (1:18/packs*)
* Pack odds retrieved from fleer.com

Inserts#:
RBI Kings: 20 cards
Home Run Kings: 15 cards
Strikeout Kings: 10 cards
Ultra Rising Stars: 10 cards
Diamond Producers: 25 cards
Midsummer Classic Kings: 10 cards
# Stated odds of finding an insert (from any of the sets) are one-per-pack.

Autogamers$:
AUTOGRAPHics: 35 cards
Ultra Fine Fabrics: 60 cards
Feel the Game: 30 cards
$ Stated odds of finding an autogamer (from any of the sets) are two-per-box, or 1:12/packs.

The Pulls.

Box One

Base Set: 115 of 251 (45.82%)
No doubles

Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 109 of 200 (54.50%)
Retro Lucky 13: 6 of 50 (12%) NOE-MAH! Helton, Cuddyer, F. Lopez, Baldelli, and P. Fielder.

Parallels:
24 Gold Medallions
1 Retro Lucky 13 Gold Medallion: A. Gonzalez

Inserts:
11 RBI Kings: Griffey, Ortiz, Teixeira, Sheffield, Sexson, Pujols, Helton, Delgado, C. Lee, V. Guerrero, and L. Gonzalez.
8 Home Run Kings: Pujols, A. Rodriguez, D. Lee, Teixeira, Dunn, Konerko, Sheffield, and Piazza.
5 Strikeout Kings: Santana, Peavy, Carpenter, Prior, and Zambrano.
5 Ultra Rising Stars: Street, F. Hernandez, Utley, Kazmir, and Taveras.
14 Diamond Producers: Edmonds, Griffey, Ortiz, M. Ramirez, Kent, Helton, Cabrera, Matsui, Tejada, Cantu, Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, and Chavez.
5 Midsummer Classic Kings: Jeter, Clemens, Soriano, G. Anderson, and I. Rodriguez.

Autogamers:
1 Ultra Fine Fabrics: Teixeira.
1 Feel the Game: V. Guerrero.

Box Two

Base Set: 115 of 251 (45.82%)
No doubles

Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 109 of 200 (54.50%)
Retro Lucky 13: 6 of 50 (12%) Jeter, P. Wilson, Jenkins, Verlander, Burroughs, Weeks.

Parallels:
24 Gold Medallions
1 Retro Lucky 13 Gold Medallion: Z. Greinke

Inserts:
11 RBI Kings: Griffey, Ortiz, M. Ramirez, Teixeira, Sheffield, Sexson, Kent, Pujols, Delgado, C. Lee, and V. Guerrero.
8 Home Run Kings: Pujols, Griffey, A. Rodriguez, D. Lee, Teixeira, Konerko, Sheffield, and Piazza.
5 Strikeout Kings: Santana, Peavy, Schilling, Carpenter, and Prior.
6 Ultra Rising Stars: Howard, Street, Utley, Duke, Kazmir, and Taveras.
13 Diamond Producers: Jeter, C. Jones, Ortiz, M. Ramirez, Kent, Helton, Matsui, V. Guerrero, Tejada, Burrell, Abreu, Bay, and Dunn.
5 Midsummer Classic Kings: Piazza, Jeter, Clemens, G. Anderson, and P. Martinez.

Autogamers:
1 Ultra Fine Fabrics: E. Chavez.
1 Feel the Game: F. Thomas.

The Review.

UpperFleerDeck does it again! Hot on the heels of Fleer baseball and the first series of Upper Deck, 2006 Fleer Ultra makes it 3-for-3 for the boys from Carlsbad. (or is it North Las Vegas now?)

The 251-card base set is pure Ultra. Just like how 2006 Fleer was a dead ringer for '94 Fleer, 2006 Ultra is Ultra just how you remember it was before it jumped the shark in 2001. The first 180 cards are arranged by team, followed by a twenty card "rookie" subset that is (are you ready for this) NOT short-printed. All 20 of these cards have the standardized MLBPA "ROOKIE CARD" icon, and yes, some of them are parenth-RCs. Cards 201-250 make up the "Retro Lucky 13" subset, and are SPed (1:4). After all, it wouldn't be an Ultra set without some short-prints? It shouldn't be all that difficult to complete the set, being that you get six of them in each box. And besides, unlike other recent card sets that shall remain nameless, it's not like they come autographed or anything.

The theme of the Retro Lucky 13s is that all were among in the first thirteen players selected in the first round of the amateur first-year player draft. Get it? Yes, there are all the usual suspects, but there are a few guys you don't normally find in a short-printed subset. Seriously, when was the last time Paul Wilson, Tony Clark, and Dustin Hermanson had SPed cards? And all the player's are current Big Leaguers -- no Brien Taylors or Josh Hamiltons in this bunch, but no Alex Gordons or Justin Uptons either. What makes the Retro Lucky 13s cool however, is that they really are Retro. The pictures used correspond directly to the year (or at least the general time frame) in which the player was drafted. For example, Ken Griffey, Jr.'s Lucky 13 shows him in one of those ass-ugly late-80s royal blue Mariners jerseys.

To finish off the base set, UpperFleerDeck was able to sneak in a redemption card -- right in the nick of time -- of The Hobby's current "Man of the Hour:" Kenji Johjima. On the checklist posted to fleer.com, Johjima is listed as card #251 in the set. However on the actual redemption card, it clearly states "NON-AUTO RREGULAR CARD #210 ... KENJI JOHJIMA." (And yes, if it says "NON-AUTO," feel free to assume that UpperFleerDeck's going to get Johjima to sign a handful as well.) If Johjima is indeed card #210, that must mean that Billy Wagner's Retro Lucky 13 card (#210 on the checklist) was pulled from the set. But it wasn't. I found at least one eBay auction for a Billy Wagner Retro Lucky 13 card. Is the redemption card right? or is the checklist? That remains to be seen.

Also, word on the street is that the Johjima redemption card was seeded at the rate of one-per-case (each case has 12 waxboxes). If this is true, then the Johjima redemption is short-printed in relation to the other Retro Lucky 13s at a rate of 30%. And since this card is only available as a redemption, could we see a repeat of the 2001 Donruss Albert Pujols situation? Stay tuned.

Moving on, just like with '06 Fleer and '06 UD I, there are an absolute crap-load of non-parallel inserts: 90 in all (not quite the "shit-load" of UD I, but a "crap-load" nonetheless). They're spread-out amongst six different insert sets, and you get one-per-pack -- at least that's what it says on the wrapper (more on that later). If you're like me and like chasing after non-parallel inserts, this is a good thing. Unfortunately, just like with Fleer and UD I, the pack insertion ratios for each specific insert set are not listed anywhere on the wrapper. In fact, since there are no checklists included with the product (tisk, tisk), you have to go Fleer's website to find this information. In addition to the one advertised insert in each pack, you also get a Gold Medallion parallel in each pack. Thankfully, it's the only parallel set in Ultra. Yes, the de-Donrussification of The Hobby continues!

Wrapping up '06 Ultra are the autogamers. Each box promises two from three different sets: Either an AUTOGRAPHic (and yes, THEY USE ALL CAPITAL LETTERS), Ultra Fine Fabric, or Feel the Game card. The latter two are game-used inserts. Of course, in mid-level premium products like Ultra, such cards are merely window dressing. Chances are, you're probably not buying a box like this to pull autogamers, but you don't really mind pulling them either. Think of them as the scoop of vanilla ice cream on top of your slice of apple pie-a-la-mode.

The Bottom Line:

Both boxes yield everything advertised and then some. Instead of the advertised one insert per pack, in both boxes, I got two. Apparently, this is not an abberation, as most collectors are reporting that you get two inserts per pack -- three if you count the one-per-pack Gold Medallion parallel. If you are building the short set -- and if you're even considering buying this product, you probably are -- you'll need to buy at least two boxes. So tap that 401k, cash in your kids college fund, do whatever you can to buy that second box. You'll be glad you did.

Product Rating: 3 1/2 Gumsticks (out of five)

Do I recommend this product?

Hell yeah! It's Fleer freaking Ultra, for crying out loud. If you don't like this product, then get the hell out of The Hobby now!

...and another thing

For some reason the Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander Retro Lucky 13 cards I pulled both have the MLBPA "Rookie Card" icon on them. According to the MLBPA's own guidelines, they shouldn't, because they both made their Major League debut before the September 1, 2005 cut-off date. Also, Ryan Zimmerman's card (also with the icon) is placed among his Nationals teammates and not with the 20 other rookies.

Olbermann Watch Covers the Gordon Story.

The fine folks at Olbermann Watch have checked in on "Kooky Keith's Kard Konspiracy™." Olbermann Watch: Where we watch Keith so that you don't have to!

The blog entry itself is basically just a re-hash of everything you've seen here. But what's really fun to look at are all the reader comments. What I want to know is, what took 'em so damn long!

Interesting Angle on the Olbermann/Gordon Story

The Konspiracy between Kooky Keith and his Alex Gordon kards kontinues!

Bob Brill (a.k.a. the guy who used to write for Beckett's weekly newsletter) has an interesting take on his blog: Why are all those contraband Gordon cards being pulled from Wal-Mart blaster boxes?

Money Line #1:

"It is a gimmick for sure if it is true the company planned the whole scenario but it might also be just dumb luck too. We certainly don’t have a problem with advertising values of cards on the secondary market but we do have an issue with mis-leading the public in an attempt to get them back into collecting."

Concur!

Money Line #2:

We are NOT suggesting Olbermann and Topps are working together or if the name behind merkle923 is doing the same. It is unusual the way it has happened and the way Olbermann and his purchase of one of these cards at $7500 are driving sales of Topps Series One Baseball.

For the record, the eBay username "merkle923" is indeed the one used by Krazy Keith.

"merkle923" is a reference to "Merkle's Boner" which took place September 23, 1908. He even wrote the foreword to a book about the incident

What I Got at the Card Show: 6/10/06

Site: Hamilton Mall; Mays Landing, NJ

England just beat Paraguay 1-0 in the World Cup, the Phillies game is blacked out (me and my brother are pulling a roadie and going to D.C. to see the Phils on Sunday), so it was either watch Trinidad get its ass kicked by Sweden, or go to a card show. Yeah, that's what I was thinking too.

One box of 2006 Ultra baseball (Paid $59)

Box break forthcoming.

One big ol' stack o' singles (Paid $105)

All of these were on my checklist as set fillers. Not looking for anything in particular, but I was happy to find the '02 TT&R SPs and all those cheap '05 Donruss-Playoff inserts.

In 1994, I actually pulled the Michael Jordan Diamond Collection card and immeediately sold it back to the dealer I bought the pack from for $50. This particular dealer wanted $12 for it.

1991 Bowman Bret Boone RC
1992 Pinnacle Slugfest Mark McGwire
1994 Upper Deck Diamond Collection Central Michael Jordan
1997 Donruss Franchise Features D. Jeter/P. Reese (# to 3000)
1997 Flair Showcase Row 0 Curt Schilling
1999 Stadium Club Never Compromise Sammy Sosa
2001 E-X Adrian Hernandez RC (# to 499)
2001 Fleer Platinum Reprints "That J.D. Guy"
2001 Fleer Tradition Stitches in Time Monte Irvin and Bill Perkins
2001 Topps Through the Years Reprints Juan Marichal
2002 Diamond Kings Roberto Clemente
2002 Donruss Elite Series (insert) Carlos Delgado (# to 2500)
2002 Studio Classic Jackie Robinson (# to 1000)
A stack of 11 2002 Topps Traded and Rookies veteran short-prints (Gary Sheffield and 10 other commons)
2003 Diamond Kings Hall of Fame Heroes Reprints Duke Snider
2003 Donruss All-Stars Derek Jeter
2004 Topps Heritage Kyle Sleeth SP
2005 Diamond Kings HOF Heroes Roberto Clemente
2005 Diamond Kings Timeline Aramis Ramirez
2005 Diamond Kings Team Timeline N. Ryan/R. Johnson
2005 Diamond Kings Heritage Collection Duke Snider
2005 Donruss Rated Rookie Angel Chavez SP
2005 Donruss "2004 The Rookies" Jorge Vasquez
2005 Donruss "2004 Studio" Scott Proctor and Livan Hernandez
2005 Donruss Elite Series (insert) Jim Thome (# to 1500)
2005 Donruss Power Alley Red Miguel Tejada (# to 2500)
2005 Donruss Longball Leaders Jim Thome (# to 1500)
2005 Donruss Craftsmen Greg Maddux and Ken Griffey, Jr. (# to 2000 each)
2005 Leaf Home Chipper Jones, Frank Thomas, and Miguel Cabrera
2005 Leaf Road Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza
2005 Leaf Clean Up Crew J. Bagwell/L. Berkman/C. Beltran
2005 Leaf Picture Perfect Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson
2005 Leaf Cornerstones P. Molitor/R. Yount
2005 Leaf Fans of the Game Tony Danza and Taye Diggs
2005 Leaf Gamers Alfonso Soriano, Greg Maddux, Jim Thome, and Vladimir Guerrero
2005 Leaf Gold Stars Alfonso Soriano
2005 Studio Portraits Eric Chavez, Carl Crawford, Kerry Wood, and Kirk Gibson (# to 20, 35, 20 and 20 respectively)
2005 Studio Stars Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Mauer, John Smoltz, Larry Walker, and Omar Vizquel
2005 Studio Diamond Cuts Sammy Sosa, Greg Maddux, and Jeremy Bonderman (# to 1250 each)
2005 Studio Heritage Darryl Strawberry (# to 1000)
2005 Topps Dem Bums Reprints Ed Roebuck and George Shuba
2005 Topps Grudge Match J. Posada/P. Martinez
2005 Ultra Follow the Leader Mark Prior

Total Spent on Cards: $164
Atlantic City Expressway Tolls: $4
Parking and Admission: FREE
Grand Total: $168

OBTW, Sweden and T&T played to a pretty exciting scoreless draw, (that's not sarcasm) and I was able to get back in time to see Ivory Coast nearly come back to tie Argentina. The World Cup really begins on Monday afternoon.

The "Chrome Premium," and will it last?

At the card show today, I wanted to observe my "Chrome Premium" theory in action. The Stale Gum Chrome Premium Theory states that, since the 2006 Bowman Prospect "inserts" (nudge, nudge, knowwhatimean, knowwhatimean) were produced in about the same quantities as the Bowman Chrome Prospect cards, collectors may not be as willing to pay a premium for the BowChros as they have in the past.

Using Alex Gordon's Prospect and BowChro Prospect cards as a benchmark, apparently, you the collector are still willing to pay such a premium.

Observed prices:

Alex Gordon Prospect: $10-$15
Alex Gordon Chrome Prospect: $25-$30
Alex Gordon Gold parallel: $20

Even though there are approximately the same number of Chrome Prospect cards as the regular Prospects (22,000 and 22,500 copies, respectively), the going rate for the BowChro's -- at least as I observed them at the Hamilton Mall in Mays Landing, NJ on June 10, 2006 -- are double that of the regular Prospects.

So does this disprove my theory? Not yet. I'm guessing that most collectors have yet to figure out just how plentiful the BowChro's really are. When they do finally figure it out, I specualte that the gap between the two cards will narrow. It's all about supply and demand folks. Supply and demand.

As for now, if you were fortunate to have pulled a BowChro Gordon, it might be time to cash in your chips and get your $30 now. Don't worry, you'll probably be able to buy it back for $15-$20 by the end of the summer. Unless, of course, that nitwit Keith Olbermann decides to corner the market on this Alex Gordon card as well.

So I was off a bit, sue me.

Topps has announced the actual production figures for the 2006 Bowman Autographed Rookie Cards, Prospect Autographs, and Autographed Variations. "Big Ups" to Beckett for getting the info.

Yes, I overestimated the number of base set and Prospect autographs (by about 50%). But, I nearly hit the target on the Autographed Variations. (Yay!) For the record, Topps says they made 1375 copies of each Autographed Rookie and Prospect Autograph, and 500 of the Kenji Johjima and Craig Hansen autographed variations. In the same announcement Topps also said that they made 963 copies of each '06 Finest autographed base card. But since Finest "jumped the shark" in '01, so who cares.

To come up with my production figures, I used two different sets of data. Using one method I calculated 2065 copies of each autograph. Using the other, I came up with the same 1250 figure that Beckett calculated. To be safe, I went with the 2065 figure. By the way, using both methods, I came up with the same 540 copies on the Hansen and Johjima variations.

It should also be noted that only two of those Autographed Rookie Cards are in fact, true "Rookie Cards." Those two would be Joey Devine and Craig Breslow (card #222 and #225, respectively). The other nine cards in the subset are "parenth-RCs." This means that, in addition to Johjima, Hansen, Devine, Breslow, and three others, there are now a grand total of seven, count 'em, seven true rookie cards in '06 Bowman. "Home of the Rookie Card" my ass!