Friday, June 02, 2006

Just how many Donruss Albert Pujols RCs are there?

Have you seen me?
I came across Albert Pujols' 2001 Donruss Rookie Diamond King card last weekend. Being that this was another card I needed towards the goal of completing a 2001 Donruss master set, I bought it -- paying well over Beckett HI in the process. This was the first time ever I had seen a copy of the Rookie Diamond King, but what about his regular Donruss rookie card? Five years after the issuance of this card, I have never actually seen one. It got me wondering: Just how scarce is the Donruss Pujols RC? And, more to the point, just how many were made?

The Donruss Pujols RC I speak of was serial numbered to 500 copies. This alone would make it amongst his scarcest cards. But that's not the whole story. You see, the Donruss Pujols RC was only available via a redemption card. First some back-story.

The 2001 Donruss set had 50 "Rated Rookies" on the checklist, each numbered to 2001 copies. Two of the cards on the provisional checklist had to be pulled due to licensing restrictions, and were replaced with redemption cards for Ben Sheets and Albert Pujols. The problem was, instead of inserting 2001 Sheets and Pujols redemption cards, they only printed 500.

Which leads me to this question: Just how many of those 500 Albert Pujols cards actually made it into circulation? One of the little-known secrets of The Hobby is that not all redemption cards go claimed. Some have estimated that anywhere from one-third to one-half of all redemption cards go unclaimed. So does that mean that 50% of the Donruss Albert Pujols rookie cards were unclaimed? Maybe. Maybe not.

So how can we get an accurate figure as to the number of 2001 Donruss Albert Pujols are actually out there? With the advent of professional grading services, one big positive has been the population report -- a count on exactly how many cards a particular company has graded. Armed with a web browser, I have discovered that the three main grading houses (PSA, BGS, and SGC) have graded a grand total of 70 copies of the 2001 Donruss Albert Pujols card. That's only 14% of the 500 that were produced.

Of course not all collectors like their cards slabbed (including this particular collector), and prefer to keep their cards in raw condition. How can we determine, with certainty, just how many Donruss Pujols cards made it into circulation?

By comparing the population reports of other serial-numbered Pujols rookie cards to the Donruss, we can make a strong guess as to what percentage of Donruss rookie cards were graded and not graded.

Sampling the population reports of ten of the most widely collected Albert Pujols RCs (Bowman Chrome, Bowman's Best, Donruss Elite, Fleer Platinum, Fleer Premium, SP Authentic, SPx, Studio, Sweet Spot, and Ultimate Collection) I discovered that of the 13,198 copies of these ten cards, a grand total of 3581 have been professionally graded. That works out to about 27%.

What exactly does this statistic mean? If 27% of the ten most popular Albert Pujols rookie cards have been graded, why have only half as many (14%) of the Donruss Pujols cards been graded?

Remember, not all redemption cards are actually redeemed. Think about it, if 27% of the ten most popular Pujols RCs have been graded, you could also assume that the same percentage of '01 Donruss cards in circulation have been as well -- provided that the card was inserted into packs.

But if only 14% of the stated 500 copies have been slabbed, that must mean that fewer than 500 of the Pujols cards were redeemed. Why so few?

First deals with the product itself. 2001 Donruss was an awful product and has not not been as well collected as other 2001 products. Which leads to theory number two: At least half the Pujols cards were never redeemed.

Therefore (assuming that the same 27% of Donruss Albert Pujols cards in circulation have been professionally graded) according to my calculations, only 260 copies of this card have been produced. (70 / 0.27 = 259.25)

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Box Break and Review: 2006 Bowman

Photo lovingly ripped off of eBay
Two Boxes of 2006 Bowman baseball (paid $68 and $65).
24 packs per box, 10 cards per pack (MSRP $2.99/pack)

The Details


Chiptoppers: One "Scouting Report" checklist.

Base Set: 231 cards
Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set ("Reds" and "Greens"): 220 cards
* Autographed Rookie Cards ("Greens"): 11 cards (1:82)

Parallels:
# Gold: 330 cards (one-per-pack)
# Blue: 330 cards (1:8/packs, numbered to 500)
# White: 330 cards (1:32, numbered to 120)
# Red: 330 cards (1:3750, one-of-one)
# Press Plates: 330 cards (1:588)
Blue Autographed Rookie Cards: 11 cards (1:225)
White Autographed Rookie Cards: 11 cards (1:1020)
Red Autographed Rookie Cards: 11 cards (1:11453. one-of-one)
Autographed Rookie Card Variation: two cards (1:1150)

Inserts:
Prospects ("Blues"): 124 cards (two-per-pack)
Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 110 cards
* Prospect Autographed Cards: 14 cards (1:62)

Blue Prospect Autographed Cards: 14 cards (1:170)
White Prospect Autographed Cards: 14 cards (1:750)
Red Prospect Autographed Cards: 14 cards (1:80208, one-of-one)
Prospect Chrome Cards: 110 cards (two-per-pack)
$ Prospect Chrome Refractors: 110 cards (1:36, numbered to 500)
$ Prospect Chrome X-fractors: 110 cards (1:72, numbered to 250)
$ Prospect Chrome Blue Refractors: 110 cards (1:118)
$ Prospect Chrome Gold Refractors: 110 cards (1:355)
$ Prospect Chrome Orange Refractors: 110 cards (1:710)
$ Prospect Chrome Red Refractors: 110 cards (1:3000)
$ Prospect Chrome Superfractors: 110 cards (1:15425, one-of-one)

* Odds of finding an Autographed Rookie Card or a Prospect Autographed Card: 1:24
# Parallels include all 220 base set cards and the 110 Prospects "inserts"
$ Overall odds of finding a refractor (of any flavor): 1:24

Autogamers:
NONE (not including the autographs that are part of the base and Prospects sets)

The Pulls.


Each pack of 10 cards contains:
Four base set cards (reds and greens)
Two Prospect "inserts" (blues)
Two Bowman Chrome Prospect parallels
One Gold parallel
and either an additional parallel, autograph, or a fifth base set card.

Base Set (including variations): 114 of 231 (49.35%)
No doubles
Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 114 of 220 (51.82%)
Autographed Rookie Cards: 0 of 11

Parallels:
16 Gold
2 Blue (C. Delgado, L. Gonzalez)

Inserts:
Prospects: 49 of 124 (39.52%)
Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 47 of 110 (43.64%)
Prospect Autographed Cards: 1 of 14 (7.14%, L. Broadway)

8 Gold Prospects
1 Blue Prospect (E. Bellorin)
1 White Prospect (K. Morales)
46 Prospect Chrome Cards (One Double)
1 Prospect Chrome Refractors (J. Vanden Berg)

The Review.



So much for The Hobby's renewed commitment to set building, eh? Bowman used to be one of the only products that featured dozens of true rookie cards, all in a base set that could actually be collected. No more. Eleven base set cards, and fourteen Prospect "inserts" come only one way: autographed and short-printed.

Speaking of true rookie cards, where the hell are they? This is Bowman, the "Home of the Rookie Card," right? Looking at the checklist, there are only two players who fit The Hobby's "Rookie Card" definition (Red Sox pitcher Craig Hansen and Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima). Now, there are 29 cards in the "green" subset, and all sport the MLBPA "Rookie Card" icon. Unfortunately, they are all "parenth-RCs:" That is, they all feature players whose true rookie cards were issued in pre-2006 products. Amongst these are "(RC's)" of Hanley Ramirez, Francisco Lirano, and Adam Wainwright. Also, all eleven of the Autographed Rookie Cards, including the highly regarded Ryan Zimmerman, are parenth-RCs.

KC's saviour?  Maybe.
The draw of this set has always been the Prospects and leading the way is, of course, Alex Gordon's first rookie card, errr..., "first year player" card. As with most Bowman sets, the checklist stars dozens of minor-leaguers, whose "1st Bowman Card" will more than likely be their last. There are 124 Prospects in all, 14 of which are autographed.

I do find it curious that the Prospect "inserts" (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) and the Chrome Prospects were seeded into packs at the same rate (2:1). Which begs the question: Will collectors be willing to pay the "Chrome Premium," when the regular cards are produced in roughly the same amount? In other words, will Alex Gordon's Chrome Prospect card book the same as his regular card? Also curious: the Chrome Prospects only parallel the 110 non-autographed cards. I guess Topps is holding those 14 Autographed Prospects for the release of regular BowChro.

The Bottom Line:



What effect, if any, the MLBPA's new "Rookie Card" guidelines, and the addition of the autographs will have on the long-term viability on the Bowman brand remains to be seen. Will it continue to be the "Home of the Rookie Card?" Or is it destined to become just another set with dozens of short-prints? This reviewer fears the latter.

Now, on to the collation. I busted two boxes -- which should be all you need to build most of the base, Prospects and Chrome Prospects sets -- and each delivered as promised. Neither box, by itself, yielded any base set or Prospects doubles (although collectively they did), but I did get two Camilo Vazquez Chromes out of the first box. The first box yielded none of the "Big Three" (Hansen, Johjima, or Gordon); however in the second I pulled a Hansen and a Gordon Prospect.

The worst autograph I have ever seen on a baseball card.
Each box yielded the promised autograph with the first bearing an Autographed Prospect of White Sox 2005 first-rounder Lance Broadway. The other box had a Rookie Autograph of Scott Olsen. Olsen went 6-4 for the Marlins' AA Club, before getting a September call-up last year -- which allowed him to be included as a "Rookie." Ho-hum. By the way, Olsen has to have the worst autograph I think I have ever seen on a baseball card. Geez, and I thought I had lousy penmanship!

Each box had 16 base set and eight Prospect Gold parallels; two base and one Prospect Blue parallels; one White parallel; and a Chrome Refractor of some sort. Being that there is no game-used element to this year's Bowman, the Gold cards are back to being printed on the same stock as the regular cards. The second box had a Gold Alex Gordon (Yay!), while the first had a White card of Angels Prospect (and Cuban National Team defector) Kendry Morales -- who is probably the second best prospect in the "Prospects" subset. The two Refractors I pulled were of Phillies Catcher Jon Vanden Berg and an X-Fractor of Tigers Second Baseman Chris Maples. Vanden Berg was picked up from the Brewers in the Rule V draft and Maples hit .225 in AA year. Like I said before, "1st Bowman Card" and likely the last.

Product Rating: 2 1/2 Gumsticks (out of five)

Do I recommend this product?


Two boxes should be enough to build most of the base and Prospects short-sets. And between the base and Prospects sets, there are only 25 autographs to chase after. Of course, only is a relative term. I still don't understand why Topps decided to monkey around with a product that really didn't need to be monkeyed around with. Subtract the autographs and the Chrome cards, and 2006 Bowman would easily be a Four Gumsitck product.

Production Figures



Based on pack insertion ratios, stated production figures, and set sizes -- and assuming that all cards in a particular set were printed in equal quantities -- I have calculated the following production runs:

Base Set: 28,000 copies
Prospect Inserts: 22,500
Chrome Prospects : 22,000
Gold Parallels: 3750
Autographed Rookies and Prospect Autographs: 2065
Hansen and Johjima Autographed Variations: 540

...and another thing


Where is the "Box Sticker?" You know, that sticker that Topps used to include in each waxbox that proudly stated: "STICK THIS ON YOUR COMPLETED SET'S BOX." (or words to that effect) I guess Topps really doesn't care if you collect Bowman as a set anymore.

Gordo-mania Running Wild!

All apologies to the horse.
Well, we now know the name of the nitwit who paid $7500 for the Alex Gordon Topps card. Yep, it was Keith Olbermann.

Hey, if Olbermann wants to throw down seven-and-a-half large on the next Billy Ripken "Fuck Face" card, that's his choice. I wish I had that kind of loot. But am I the only one who finds it a little strange that this card was purchased by a guy who used to be on the Topps payroll?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that Topps and KO are in some grand conspiracy. But it is kind of strange.

Monday, May 22, 2006

What I Got at the Card Show: 5/20/06

Site: Westchester County Center; White Plains, NY.

I decided to pull a roadie to White Plains, New York this weekend for a card show. It had been almost five years since I'd been to the White Plains show, and I had nothing to do this weekend. Sounded like a good way to kill an otherwise boring Saturday afternoon.

White Plains is kind of like the Ft. Washington show, but roughly half the size. Another difference is the venue. Unlike the generic Ft. Washington Expo Center, this show is held in a beautiful WPA-era mini-arena/convention center, right off the Bronx River Parkway. Pretty neat place for a show. Thank God Expo Center is closing soon.

Many of the Ft. Washington regulars also set up here, with a few locals sprinkled in for good measure. Although I must say that there are probably more New York area dealers here, than there are Philly area dealers at Ft. Washington.

A had $200 in my wallet, and here's what I got:

A box of 2006 Bowman (Paid $65)

Man, is 2006 Bowman flying off the shelves, or what? This is my second box of '06 Bowman, and given the structure of the product, you'll have to buy two boxes to come even close to completing the short set. The dealer I bought it from said that he had already sold six-cases of Hobby in the first three days, and was well into his seventh! You can chalk up the demand to one man: Alex Gordon. Looks like Gordo-mania is running wild in The Hobby, brother.

I had already cracked open a hobby box, so I was looking for an HTA. After all, you get two autographs in each HTA box. Unfortunately, that second autograph is not from the base set, but rather from an HTA-only insert. Since there really are no other differences between hobby and HTA, do yourself a favor and stick with hobby boxes.

Albert Pujols 2001 Donruss The Rookies Rookie Diamond King ($80)

Yes, I overpaid for this card. But I needed it to complete my 2001 Donruss master set, and I just had to have it. This particular card was randomly inserted into every fifth Donruss The Rookies factory set, and because of this, you don't see many of these broken up for singles. I just couldn't help myself.

Speaking of Pujols RCs, the same dealer also had another one of his cards that I had never seen before, and on my wantlist: his 2001 Fleer Futures Update RC. He also wanted $80 for it.

Ryan Howard 2003 Donruss Elite Extra Edition ($25, # to 900)

Now my Ryan Howard RC collection is complete. I got his Diamond King Update card a couple of weeks ago for $12, and now his Donruss E3. For $5 below Beckett HI no less! Horray for me!

Ronny Cedeno 2004 Flair Class of '04 ($5, # to 699)

I found this card in the same stack as the Howard. The only reason I bought it was to fill out my set. Five bucks is probably more than this card will ever be worth anyway. I mean, come on. It's Ronny Fucking Cedeno!

Total Spent on Cards: $175
Admission and Parking: $11
Bridge and Turnpike Tolls: $15
Grand Total: $201

Friday, May 19, 2006

2006 Bowman: 1st Impressions

Just bought a box of the new Bowman (paid $68). I'm busting it tonight, and I'll have a complete box collation tomorrow.

First impressions of the new Bowman: First off, Bowman has gone the way of its Draft Pick counterpart, and is now "bundled" with Bowman Chrome. This is great if you collect both Bowman and BowChro. Unfortunately, I don't. I have never opened a pack of BowChro in my life and have no intention to. Yet, in order to collect the set I want -- and that would be regular Bowman -- one-fifth of the cards in the box I am about to crack, (three-in-ten if you include the one-per-pack "Gold" parallels) are of no use to me. Gee, thanks Topps!

We keep hearing from "The Hobby Powers That Be" of the need to revive set collecting. Set builders (and I count myself among the ranks) are the backbone of The Hobby, and will remain so. While Upper Deck has been taking the set building revival to heed -- witness the excellent, collector friendly '06 UD and Fleer sets -- Topps goes in the opposite direction with '06 Bowman.

Bowman was a rarity: a rookie-focused product without short-prints. In other words, it was product with a crap-load of rookie cards, and you can actually afford to build a complete set. Not anymore. 25 of the cards come only one way: pre-autographed, and seeded at the rate of one-per-box (two-per in HTA). It's one thing to say that you're encouraging set collecting, it's quite another to issue sets that are able to actually be collected.

With that in mind, I do not have high hopes for this box. Hopefully, I'll be pleasantly surprised. Probably not.

Gordo-mania 2!

Alex Gordon card goes for $7500 on eBay.

How much are those Billy Ripken cards worth again?

Gordo-mania!

We haven't seen anything like this in The Hobby since the Billy Ripken "Fuck Face" controversy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2429888

Look, we all know how much the Royals suck. And we all know that Gordon is going to be called up to Kansas City sometime this season. And when the inevitable happens, we can all be assured that Topps will be eager to print a legit "rookie card" for either series II or Topps Traded. Why then are people stupid enough to throw down $2550 for a card that five months from now will be worth, at most $10?

Thursday, May 18, 2006

...and this time I mean it!

Yes, I'm back. After two years, I've decided to revive Stale Gum. It will be everything you remember about the old site, and a few new wrinkles as well.

Chris Harris
www.stalegum.com

Friday, May 21, 2004

Test Post: 2004 Cracker Jack Baseball -- 2 box break.

Two Boxes of 2004 Cracker Jack baseball (paid $38 each).
20 packs per box, eight cards plus one "Secret Surprise" per pack (MSRP $2.99/pack)

The Details


Chiptoppers: One bag of Cracker Jack and one Keith Olbermann dissertation sheet per box.

Base Set: 250 cards (237 unique cards, 13 variations)
Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 200 cards (197 unique cards, three variations)
Short-Prints: 50 cards, 1:3 (40 unique cards, ten variations)

Parallels:
Red Minis (200 cards, one-per-pack)
Short-Print Red Mini (50 cards, 1:20)
Blue Minis (200 cards, 1:10)
Blue Short-Print Mini (50 cards, 1:60)
White Mini (250 cards, 1:6189, one-of-one)
Stickers (200 stickers, one-per "Secret Surprise" pack)
Short-Print Stickers (50 stickers, 1:20 "Secret Surprise" packs)

Inserts:
Vintage Repurchased (1:2598)

Autogamers:
Team Topps Legends (1:755,000)
Secret Suprise Signatures (11 cards, *)
Cracker Jack Autographs (six cards, 1:258)
1, 2, 3 Strikes You're Out (18 cards, *)
Take Me Out to the Ballgame (54 cards, *)

* Odds of finding an autograph or game used card: 1:10/Secret Surprise packs.

The Pulls.


Base Set (including variations): 203 of 250 (81.20%)
71 Doubles

Broken Down by Short-Print Scheme:
Short Set: 189 of 200 (94.50%)
Short-Prints: 14 of 50 (J. Reyes, I. Suzuki, S. Sosa, M. Prior, J. Ortiz, C. Schilling variation, R. Baldelli, D. Young, B. J. Upton, R. Weeks, Z. Greinke, J. Knott, I. Rodriguez variation, D. Jeter)

Parallels:
32 Red Minis
2 Short-Print Red Mini: C. Kotchman, E. Aybar
5 Blue Minis: E. Chavez, E. Loaiza, H. Blalock (2), B. Jenks
1 Short-Print Blue Mini: K. Sleeth
36 Stickers: (34 and 2 doubles)
4 Short-Print Stickers: R. Ibanez, C. Schilling Variation, Z. Greinke, D. Jeter

Autogamers:
1 1, 2, 3, Strikes You're Out: P. Martinez (Jersey)
3 Take Me Out to the Ball Game: I. Rodriguez (Bat), J. Rollins (Jersey w/Pinstripe), S. Sosa (Bat)

The Review.


The slogan of Cracker Jack at the turn of the last century was: "The More You Eat, The More You Want." Such a slogan could also apply to the new Topps produced baseball card set of the same name: "2004 Cracker Jack, The More You Rip, The More You Want (to collect)." OK, maybe not.

2004 marks the third consecutive year Topps has produced a "retro" themed product based on a pre-World War I card set. But unlike 2002's Topps 206 or last year's Topps 205, each box of Cracker Jack comes with a sample of the product the original was packaged with: In this case, a bag of Cracker Jacks. In these PC times we live in, I couldn't imagine Topps putting a pack of unfiltered Camels in a box of baseball cards. That's probably a good thing. As with most recent Topps "retro" themed sets, each box also includes a fold out essay written by MSNBC liberal talking head and uber-collector Keith Olbermann. The fold out gives a brief history of the original 1914-15 Cracker Jack cards, and throws in a few nuggets of info that even the most astute collector probably wasn't aware of. For example, did you know that the original Cracker Jack was the first card set that was (for your collecting convenience) sequentially numbered? Or that the term "Cracker Jack" originally referred to sea rations?

As an aside, has there been anyone in the history of broadcast journalism that has inflicted more damage to their own career than Keith Olbermann? I mean, this is Keith Olbermann. Keith Freaking Olbermann! The biggest star of the "Golden Age" of ESPN. But he stepped on a few toes, burned a couple of bridges, and is now been banished to the journalistic equivalent of Siberia: the 8:00 PM timeslot on a third-rate cable news outlet. As the Olbermann of 1994 probably would have quipped: "Gianluca Paliguca, Gianluca Paliguca, Gianluca Paliguca."

Once you lift off the tray that holds the Cracker Jacks and the Olbermann dissertation, you get to the cards. Each pack contains seven standard (2.5" X 3.5") cards, one 2" X 3" "Mini" parallel card (which is done in the same size as the 1914-15 originals) and a "Secret Surprise" pack. These Secret Surprise packs remind me of those annoying one-card packs that were in 2001 Donruss. (Reason #713 why 2001 Donruss was the worst card set ever made.) Yes, just like 2001 Donruss, the Secret Surprise packs are a real pain in the ass to open. But unlike 2001 Donruss, the "pack-in-a-pack" gimmick works here. After all, it wouldn't be a pack of Cracker Jacks without the Secret Surprise now wouldn't it?

Much like the "20X" and Heritage lines, the design of Cracker Jack holds true to the original, albeit in the modern day 2.5" X 3.5" format. The fire engine red backdrop makes the card stand out from any other set released since, well, the original Cracker Jacks. If you're like me, you probably have a box of random commons that you'll sort through when you "get around to it." Admit it, we all have stacks of unsorted cards hanging around just waiting to be collated. If you're like me, when you finally "get around to it," you'll come across a card and have to ask yourself this question: "What set was this card from again?" Years from now, when you're thumbing through your "get around to it" pile and come across one of these cards, you shouldn't have any trouble remembering that it's from 2004 Cracker Jack.

The backs are a different story. The original Crack Jack cards were designed in conjunction with a custom album that could be acquired via mail order. Because of this, Cracker Jack purposely printed the backs of some of the cards upside down. That way, when the cards are placed in the album's designated position, the fronts and the backs of the cards are all aligned in the same direction. Although there is no custom album element to this set, Topps has done the same thing with their version of Cracker Jack by printing the backs of some cards upside down. While this does make collating the cards very tedious, it does add a touch of authenticity to the set.

Something else you may not even be aware of. If you look real carefully at some cards, you may notice slight levels of discoloration. This is especially evident on the backs and front borders. I'm not exactly sure if this was intentional, but it appears to be what a caramel "stain" aged 90 years would look like.

The actual set is composed of 250 cards: 237 unique player cards, and 13 "variations." Now, you could accuse Topps of beating a dead horse with the variations, and they have. Beaten to a point where most variations really don't serve much of a purpose anymore, other than to aggravate collectors everywhere. But much like how the "black back" variations in 2001 Topps Heritage were a play on the set they mimicked (1952 Topps), the variations in the original Cracker Jacks serve a similar purpose in this modern version. For example, in the 1914-15 Cracker Jack set, there are two different versions of Roger Bresnahan (who is one of a handful of players from the original 1914-15 Cracker Jacks, with a cameo appearance in this set), with and without the card number. For this set, there are two different versions of Alex Rodriguez's card, both with and without the card number. Other variations account for players who have recently changed teams (Sheffield, Schilling, I. Rodriguez), and a handful of "pose variations," just line in the original.

Fifty of the cards (40 from the base set, and ten of the 13 variations) are short-printed. Unlike the variations however, they really do not add to the "realness" of the set, since none of the original 1914-15 Cracker Jacks were purposely SPed. Using the example of 2001 Topps Heritage, the "Gold Standard" of retro themed card sets and the one which all others that have come afterward must be compared to, the short-printing of cards 311-407 was based on the "high-number" series of '52 Topps. By SPing the same numbered cards in '01 Heritage, Topps added that much more authenticity (and prestige) to '01 Heritage, short of releasing Heritage in six separate series.

Like I said before, the original Cracker Jacks did not feature any short-prints, contrived or otherwise. Unfortunately, much like the Heritage products that came after the wildly successful 2001 edition, 2004 Cracker Jack does not have nearly the same level of "short print authenticity" as '01 Heritage. But instead of comparing '04 Cracker Jack to '01 Heritage, a better comparison would be to '03 Heritage. 2003 Heritage had 450 cards, 100 of which were SPed. But the set it was based on, 1954 Topps, had only 250 cards and no SPs. But despite this, even with (or in spite of) the short printing, Cracker Jack is still a set worth building. Besides, unlike scores of other products with short-prints I could name, Cracker Jack is a set you can actually complete (with a little time and effort of course) without having to sell your firstborn.

Like I said before, each pack comes with a parallel done in the style and size of the 1914-15 Cracker Jack set. Think of the 20X products "Mini" cards and you have the same concept, but much more simple in scheme. Whereas 206 had fifteen different Mini versions (American Beauty, Bazooka, Carolina Brights, Cycle, Drum, Lenox, Piedmont Black, Piedmont Red, Polar Bear, Sweet Caporal Black, Sweet Caporal Blue, Sweet Caporal Red, Tolstoi Black, Tolstoi Red and Uzit), and 205 had seventeen (American Beauty, American Beauty Purple, Bazooka Blue, Bazooka Red, Brooklyn, Cycle, Cycle Purple, Drum, Honest, Honest Purple, Piedmont, Piedmont Purple, Polar Bear, Soverign, Soverign Green, Sweet Caporal and Sweet Caporal Purple) there are only three of each Cracker Jack: Red, White and Blue. Granted, there were just as many different back variations in the real T-206 and T-205 sets, but 17 versions may have gone a bit overboard. In Cracker Jack, the Red Minis are the most common followed by the Blues, then the Whites, which are a one-of-one. The same 50 cards in the base set that are short-printed are also SPed in the Minis, with the Red SPs coming once per box and the Blue SPs every third.

And now, drum roll please, the "Secret Surprise." Earlier, I stated that these packs reminded me of those pain-in-the-ass-to-open single-card packs from 2001 Donruss. Did I mention how much 2001 Donruss sucked? Oh, I did. OK. Anyway, I may have inferred that the Secret Surprise packs were also one-card packs as well. I don't want to mislead anyone here, but you actually get two cards in each Secret Surprise pack: either an autograph, gamer, or a checklist that doubles as a "pack search decoy," and a sticker. Unfortunately, the sticker is essentially another one-per-pack parallel, that just happens to look like and be the same size of the Minis (2" X 3"). As much as I don't like the concept of parallels, I can tolerate them in some instances. But sometimes you just have to scratch your head and wonder what they were thinking. What is the purpose of having two different one-per-pack parallels in the same product? And not just two one-per-pack parallels either, two one-per-pack parallels that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. Although there are not Blue and White versions of the stickers, the same 50 cards that are short-printed in the base set, and that are short-printed in the Minis, are also SPed in the stickers. To make matters worse, the SPed stickers are seeded at the same 1:20/pack rate as the SPed Red Minis! Now, like I said before, I like the "Secret Surprise" element. But if you're going to include an extra insert in every pack, how about giving the people something worth collecting? Like a non-parallel insert such as the "Team 206" cards in Topps 206?

The addition of autographs and game-used cards are, as they should be in a product like this, an afterthought. With the state of The Hobby the way it is, including such cards has become a "necessary evil." But give Topps credit, they know the target audience of Cracker Jack (much like its Topps, Bowman, Heritage and Total brands) probably isn't going to buy this just to pull gamers. You do get two such cards in each box, and while it is nice to pull one, they're really not the "marquee attraction" of this product. Topps probably could have gotten away with an insertion ratio of one-per-box, or even one in every other box, and most still would've bought it. The marquee attraction of Cracker Jack is the set itself and Topps deserves "big ups" for recognizing this.

The Bottom Line:


Nobody does "retro" like Topps. Period. Full stop. End of discussion.

Fleer? 2000 Fleer Tradition was one of those products that comes along once every couple of years, that causes a sea change in The Hobby. '00 Trad all but single handily started the "retro" trend as we know it today. Unfortunately by 2001, the retro floodgates had opened, and Tradition was left in the dust. The fact that in 2001, Fleer issued a truly mediocre Tradition set certainly didn't help. Unfortunately, Tradition has now gone the short-print route, and as such, has to reach the level (both within The Hobby and amongst "real collectors") set by the landmark 2000 Trads. Fleer Platinum has been a brand searching for an identity after its rather successful 2001 launch. It certainly didn't help that Fleer was producing two different retro themed base level products at the same time. With Tradition now going with an original (somewhat) design, it should give Fleer the chance to re-establish the Platinum brand. Either that, or put this product out of its misery.

Upper Deck? Please. If you've ever read the book Card Sharks by former USA Today writer Pete Williams, you'd discover for yourself the sheer irony of products like Play Ball and Vintage. In case you haven't read it (you should, it's long out of print, but you might be able to find a copy on Amazon), it deals with the first five years of Upper Deck, from their 1988 founding in an Orange County strip mall, up to 1993. Other than being a stinging indictment of CEO Richard MacWilliam (who apparently had no idea who "Tony Gwine" was), the book gets into the modius operanti of the company's founders. The m.o. was simple: Use modern printing technologies to build a better baseball card. This was 1988 and the card itself had evolved little in four decades. The result of their efforts: The product that changed The Hobby forever, for the better AND for the worse, 1989 Upper Deck. I seriously doubt that the men who founded UD in that strip mall, would have any idea that years later, the company they begot would be printing the kind of cards Topps was cranking out by the millions in 1988.

Besides, it's not as if either of these products are all that great to begin with. 2001 and 2002 UD Vintage were nothing more than clones of '00 Fleer Tradition. Don't get me wrong, they were both pretty decent products, but it was clear that UD was ripping off Fleer (for the concept) and Topps (for the design). Since 2003, Vintage has become much like Fleer Tradition: Just another card set with a dozens of meaningless short-prints. You could also put the equally horrendous Play Ball in this category as well.

Donruss? Originals was a great product back in 2002, and I'm still waiting for the second series they promised for 2003. But given their recent track record of dicking up formerly "collector friendly" products like Leaf, Studio and Donruss with over-the-top gimmickry and "contrived scarcity," it's probably a good thing they don't do retro anymore.

Getting back to Topps. Following the successes of Topps 206 and Topps 205, Cracker Jack had a hard act to follow. Not only does Cracker Jack follow in the footsteps of 20X, it may be the best of the Pre-World War I retro products yet. However, I couldn't believe just how affordable I was able to pick it up for. I purchased these two boxes at the recent "Philly Show" in Ft. Washington, PA, which occurred a couple of weeks after Cracker Jack went "live." $38 for a 20 pack box? $38! When the first series of Topps 206 came out, I don't remember this product selling for less than $100/box a couple of weeks after release. Granted, the MSRP of 206 was $1 more per pack ($4/pack, as opposed to $3/pack), but both products packed out at 20-packs per box. So using the trend set by 206 two years ago, Cracker Jack should be selling in the $60-$75/box range.

So why isn't it? For starters, it appears that Topps has produced more of Cracker Jack than they did of 206 (and 205). Also, unlike the 20X products, Topps has issued Cracker Jack to retail outlets. There they are, right next to the checkout aisle at your friendly neighborhood K-Mart: Eight-pack blaster boxes of Cracker Jack for only $19.99. Increased supply equals lower price.

Now, on to the collation. Individually, each box delivered as promised. Neither box, by itself, yielded any base set doubles (although collectively they did), and the inserts ran as scheduled. Each box yielded two gamers, one Short-Print Mini Red, three Mini Blues and a Short-Print Sticker. In the first box I opened, in addition to the two promised short set Mini Blues, I received a 1:60/pack Short-Print Mini. The other box had however, was a bit quirky. I pulled three short set Mini Blues, one more than advertised, but two of the same player: Hank Blalock. Very weird. Even weirder, I got both Blalocks in consecutive packs.

Product Rating: 4 Gumsticks (out of five)
Collation Rating: 4 1/2 Gumsticks


Do I recommend this product?


Although you're going to have to rip at least two to come close to building a short set, $38 for a box is a steal. 2004 Cracker Jack is a great product that's easy to collect to say nothing of the "fun factor." Granted, you may not be able to find boxes this affordable in your neck of the woods, but if you can find a box (or two) in the $45 range, go for it. The only real negative point I have, are the stickers. I still don't understand the reasoning behind two virtually indistinguishable one-per-pack parallels in the same product.

Monday, April 19, 2004

Test Post: 2004 Diamond Kings -- 2 box break

Donruss-Playoff takes Diamond Kings to the proverbial "next level." But did it really need to go there?

Two boxes of 2004 Diamond Kings baseball. (paid $75 each)
12 packs per box, five cards per pack (MSRP $5 per pack)

The Details


Base Set: 175 cards
Broken Down by Short Print Scheme:
Short Set: 150 cards
Flashback/Legends: 25 cards (odds not stated)

Parallels:
Flashback/Legends Sepia (25 cards)
Bronze (175 cards, numbered to 100)
Silver (175 cards, numbered to 50)
Platinum (175 cards, one-of-one)
Framed Bronze (175 cards, 1:6)
Framed Silver (175 cards, numbered to 100)
Framed Gold (175 cards, numbered to 25)
White Framed Platinum (175 cards, one-of-one)
Gray Framed Platinum (175 cards, one-of-one)
Black Framed Platinum (175 cards, one-of-one)

Inserts:
Gallery of Stars (15 cards, 1:37)
Heritage Collection (25 cards)
Timelines (six cards, 1:92)
Team Timelines (19 cards, 1:29)
Hall of Fame Heroes (35 cards*, production varies)

* The checklist Donruss provided in the box is wrong. There are 23 different players in the Hall of Fame Heroes set. Each player has a card numbered to 1000 copies, and the set is sequenitally numbered from 45 to 67. Seven players (Brett, Schmidt, Ryan, Clemente, Snider, Musial and Campanella) have a variation card numbered to 500. Four of those players have a second variation card numbered to 250 (Brett, Ryan, Clemente and Musial). Lastly, Clemente has a third varation numbered to 100.
Based on my research the complete checklist for the Hall of Fame Heroes is:

45 George Brett
46 Mike Schmidt
47 Nolan Ryan
48 Roberto Clemente
49 Carl Yastrzemski
50 Robin Yount
51 Whitey Ford
52 Duke Snider
53 Carlton Fisk
54 Ozzie Smith
55 Kirby Puckett
56 Bobby Doerr
57 Frank Robinson
58 Ralph Kiner
59 Al Kaline
60 Bob Feller
61 Yogi Berra
62 Stan Musial
63 Jim Palmer
64 Johnny Bench
65 Steve Carlton
66 Gary Carter
67 Roy Campanella

Level One Variation (numbered to 500)
45 George Brett
46 Mike Schmidt
47 Nolan Ryan
48 Roberto Clemente
52 Duke Snider
62 Stan Musial
67 Roy Campanella

Level Two Variation (numbered to 250)
45 George Brett
47 Nolan Ryan
48 Roberto Clemente
62 Stan Musial

Level Three Variation (numbered to 100)
48 Roberto Clemente

Autogamers:
DK Materials Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 150 or less)
DK Materials Silver (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
DK Materials Gold (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
DK Materials Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
DK Signatures Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 200 or less)
DK Signatures Silver (200 cards, numbered to 100 or less)
DK Signatures Gold (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
DK Signatures Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
DK Combos Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 30 or less)
DK Combos Silver (200 cards, numbered to 15 or less)
DK Combos Gold (200 cards, numbered to 5 or less)
DK Combos Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Framed DK Materials Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 100 or less)
Framed DK Materials Silver (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Framed DK Materials Gold (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
White Framed DK Materials Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Gray Framed DK Materials Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Black Framed DK Materials Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Framed DK Signatures Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Framed DK Signatures Silver (200 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Framed DK Signatures Gold (200 cards, numbered to 5 or less)
White Framed DK Signatures Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Gray Framed DK Signatures Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Black Framed DK Signatures Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Framed DK Combos Bronze (200 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Framed DK Combos Silver (200 cards, numbered to 15 or less)
Framed DK Combos Gold (200 cards, numbered to 5 or less)
White Framed DK Combos Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Gray Framed DK Combos Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Black Framed DK Combos Platinum (200 cards, one-of-one)
Diamond Cut Jersey (50 cards, numbered to 100 or less)
Diamond Cut Clubs (50 cards, numbered to 100 or less)
Diamond Cut Signatures (50 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Diamond Cut Combos - Materials (50 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Diamond Cut Combos - Signatures (50 cards, numbered to 35 or less)
Heritage Collection Materials - Jerseys (25 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Heritage Collection Materials - Bats (25 cards, numbered to 50 or less)
Heritage Collection Signatures (25 cards, numbered to 20 or less)
Timeline Materials - Jerseys (six cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Timeline Materials - Jerseys "Prime" (six cards, one-of-one)
Timeline Materials - Bats (six cards, numbered to 25)
Team Timeline Materials - Jerseys (19 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Team Timeline Materials - Jerseys "Prime" (19 cards, one-of-one)
Team Timeline Materials - Bats (19 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Hall of Fame Heroes Signatures (35 cards, numbered to 35 or less)
Hall of Fame Heroes Materials - Jerseys (35 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Hall of Fame Heroes Materials - Bats (35 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Hall of Fame Heroes Combos (35 cards, numbered to 25 or less)
Gallery of Stars Signatures (15 cards, numbered to 10 or less)
Recollection Collection

The Pulls:



Base Set:
Box 1: 55 of 175 (31.43%)
Box 2: 54 of 175 (30.86%)
Combined: 97 of 175 (12 doubles)

Broken Down by Short Print Scheme:
Box 1
Short Set: 51 of 150
Flashback/Legends: 3 of 25

Box 2
Short Set: 50 of 150
Flashback/Legends: 3 of 25

Combined
Short Set: 89 of 150
Flashback/Legends: 6 of 25


Parallels:
Box 1
1 Legends Sepia: J. Palmer
2 Framed Bronze: W. Young, J. Bagwell
1 Framed Gold: S. Carlton /25

Box 2
1 Legends Sepia: R. Campanella
2 Framed Bronze: A. Pujols, K. Griffey, Jr.
1 Bronze: R. Henderson /100

Inserts:
Box 1
1 Gallery of Stars: A. Rodriguez
1 Heritage Collection: D. Mattingly
1 Hall of Fame Heroes: C. Yastrzemski /1000

Box 2
1 Heritage Collection: M. Piazza
1 Gallery of Heroes Level One Variation: R. Clemente /500


Autogamers:
Box 1
1 DK Materials Bronze: M. Mussina /100
1 Framed DK Materials Silver: M. Byrd /50

Box 2
1 Framed DK Materials Bronze: T. Hudson /100
1 DK Signatures Bronze: P. Konerko /8

The Review:


Diamond Kings is the latest Donruss-Playoff product that ignores the time honored axiom: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Diamond Kings wasn't broke, but D-P decided to fix it anyway.

One of the few aspects of this year's DK that they didn't fix (fortunately) is the composition of the base set. Like last year, it's 175 cards with 25 short-prints. Yeah, I know last year's DK was 176 cards, but they added that Contreras late in the production run so it doesn't count. Just kidding. Kudos to Donruss-Playoff for not monkeying around with the integrity of the base set, like they did with 2004 Donruss and Leaf. Unfortunately, as with the aforementioned Donruss and Leaf, the fact that the 25 Legend/Flashbacks cards are SPed is not mentioned anywhere on the box or on the wrapper. A very disturbing trend that D-P MUST end immediately.

As usual the Diamond King base set cards are spectacular, but not without fault. Foremost among these faults is the design of the card. While the artwork is, as it has always been, spectacular, the "framework" of the card leaves much to be desired. In another review I read that it reminded the writer of an Old West "WANTED" poster. A pretty apt description as any I've seen. Unfortunately, the actual artwork as laid out is so small that you can't really see any of the details. Don't get me wrong, the artwork is stunning. Well, what little I could make of it. And by the way, if anyone at Donruss is reading this, could you please bring back Dick Perez? No offense to the artists you've hired, but the DKs haven't been same since he left in '96.

And now from the sublime to the ridiculous; or, the parts they decided to "fix." Normally, in my reviews I follow up the base set with the parallels. Normally. I'm going to deviate from this a little bit (you'll see why later) and go straight to the inserts. The Gallery of Stars, Heritage Collection cards and Team Timelines inserts carry on the same theme of last year's similarly named subsets. Nothing of real distinction here, however, there is a bit of a twist to the Timelines. The 19 card "Team Timelines" follow on the same concept of the "Timelines" inserts in 2002 and 2003 Diamond Kings (two players of different era from the same franchise on the same card). However, the six card "Timelines" series have six active players depicted with two of the teams they have played for.

The final non-parallel, non-game-used insert is, by far the most confusing insert scheme I've seen since another Donruss related fustercluck, Fractal Matrix (although you could place the 2004 Leaf Exhibits as a close second in the "fustercluck" category): The Hall of Fame Heroes. Confusing because, although the checklist provided in the waxbox says that the cards are sequentially numbered from 1-35. Now, there are 35 total cards in the set, but they're are only 23 players depicted, and the set is sequentially numbered from 45-67. About the only logical explanation for starting at 45 is that the 1983 Donruss Hall of Fame Heroes set on (which this series is based) had 44 cards, and that these inserts are meant as an extension. Never mind the minor detail that the '83 HOF Heroes were its own standalone product and not a serial numbered insert in another product. To add even more confusion, last year's DK also had an insert set based on the '83 HOF Heroes called the "Hall of Fame Heroes." However the 2003 edition were reprints and the 2K4's are original artwork. The structure of this series is way too confusing to explain, but it involves as many as four different cards of selected players, and all produced at different levels of scarcity. Just see the chart I've produced in The Details section of the review.

And now to the part of Diamond Kings that everyone is talking about: the parallels and game used. For the record, since most of the game used and autographs are, for all intents and purposes, parallels, again, I'll be deviating a bit from my usual review formula. Nobody ever accused me of being inflexible. In a recent Beckett article explaining the 2004 Leaf Exhibits inserts, Steven Judd, Donruss-Playoff's baseball brand manager, said that D-P wanted to take many of the same concepts of their high-end brands (like Leaf Limited), and bring them to their base-brands. Judd, whom for the record, has convinced me by his efforts that he had never opened up a pack of baseball cards in his life prior to his employment at D-P, wanted to take products like Donruss, Leaf and Diamond Kings to "another level." Whatever that is supposed to mean.

Well, we all know what "another level" means: more "contrived scarcity" than you can shake a stick at. If you include the autographs and game used cards as a "parallel," (technically they're not true parallels, but work with me here) than each of the 175 base set cards has anywhere from 33 to as many as 79 different versions, twenty of which are "one-of-ones." Yes, 79 different versions of what is, essentially, the same card. Stephen Judd was right, DK takes it to the "next level:" a level bordering on self-parody. Just like with the Hall of Fame Heroes, it would take me way too much time and effort to explain each and every one of the 79 different versions, so just check the list above.

The Bottom Line:


After the 2004 Donruss and Leaf debacles, I promised myself that I wouldn't be purchasing, much less collecting, any further 2004 Donruss-Playoff products. Unfortunately, the "buzz" regarding Diamond Kings was just too great for me to resist. In retrospect, I should have used that $150 to pay down my credit card.

One thing about 2004 DK that I haven't heard in other reviews is the increase in price by $2 a pack. Whereas last year, you could have purchased a 24-count waxbox in the $65-$70 range, the MSRP for a 12-count box was $60. Since then, Hobby hype has driven this product to the $75-$90/box range. Individually, each box yielded roughly the same: no base set doubles, three short-prints and a "sepia" variation, two framed bronze parallels, and three cards (two autogamers and a parallel) numbered to 100 or less. On the surface, if you plunked down $75 for a product (any product), and received three cards serial numbered to 100 or less, you would think that you got your money's worth. Unfortunately, as with most of it's other recent efforts, D-P has made it easy, too easy, to pull really low serial numbered inserts and game used cards.

In addition to complete ignorance to the workings of The Hobby, I am also convinced that Judd (as well as 95% of people drawing a paycheck from The Hobby), know little, if anything, about the basic theories of economics. Then again, you could make a compelling argument that 95% of the population in general is economically illiterate. Getting back to my point, you don't have to have a Ph.D. to figure out that if you increase the supply of a commodity (for shits and giggles let's just call this commodity, "game used trading cards numbered to 100 copies or less"), and the demand for said commodity remains stagnant, the market forces will cause the value of the commodity to decline. Kind of ironic, isn't it? In their haste to deliver "value," manufacturers like Donruss-Playoff have flooded the market with game used cards. But along the way the powers of supply-and-demand come along to bite The Hobby in the ass.

Product Rating: 2 Gumsticks (out of five)
This is the best Donruss-Playoff baseball product released to date. That's not exactly saying much, but it is.
Collation Rating: 4 Gumsticks

Do I recommend this product?


At the current market prices ($75-$90/box), no. Of the three game jersey cards (Tim Hudson and Mike Mussina each numbered to 100 and a Marlon Byrd numbered to 50) and one autograph (Paul Konerko numbered to eight) I pulled from these two boxes, I bet you that if I put them all on eBay, I would get much more than $50 for them all. Combine that with all the other cards inserts, parallels and base set cards I pulled, and clearly this collector didn't get his $150 worth. On the other hand, if you are just looking to collect the base set, you're probably better off avoiding wax and piecing together your set by buying singles.